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How to think of this round of trade talks in the us and Europe
time: 2018-07-27      source: http://opinion.haiwainet.cn/n/2018/0727/c353596-31

 

Hold meeting with jean-claude juncker, trump, agree that the eu is committed to eliminate tariffs and trade barriers.(source: Oriental IC)

25, the United States and the European Union agreed to negotiate a lower barriers to trade, ease trade friction, and agreed to suspend new duties were imposed on, but subsequent negotiations can truly implement these goals still exist great uncertainties.

From the point of the statement, trade talks include two goals.The first goal is to reduce trade tensions in present, mainly in a concerted effort to realize the auto industry product zero tariff, zero tariff barriers and zero subsidies, and stop the implementation of the new tariff during negotiations.The second goal is to reform and reshape the international trade rules, plan in the us and Europe in a concerted effort to reform the world trade organization (WTO), and implementation of fair trade, pay special attention to intellectual property rights, forced technology transfer and industrial subsidies and so on.

The first objective could be seen as a short-term goal,It has established to cool before the existing trade tensions in the us and Europe.In recent months, rose sharply that trade friction between the us and Europe, the United States on the European steel tariffs and threat of automobile and parts to impose a 25% tariff is the source of trade frictions.Because the two sides established a "high-level task force", and promised no longer new tariff measures during negotiations, that, at least in the short term to avoid the trade friction in the us and Europe.

However, to achieve the goal of the first, there is still uncertainty.First, the nature of trade negotiations is still not very clear at present, the working group was established for the purpose of trade friction, short-term, or in order to form a new trade agreement, it is not clear, if the latter, the negotiation with the suspended in transatlantic tradeinvestmentThe relationship between the protocol (TTIP) positioning is not clear.Second, from the perspective of the listing of negotiations, the parties agree and no duties in the field of automobile, and special ruled out this area in the negotiation, which in essence is the core of the eu's concerns.This means that the talks end or at the termination of the negotiations, the car disputes still will test the us and Europe in the field of economic and trade relations.While the eu had pointed out in the face of the threat that if car tariff policy trump, the eu will develop the same strength of countermeasures.Third, after the United States in the negotiations also makes the "truce" sustainability remains to be seen in the us and Europe.

From the point of the global impact, because of the great trade scale in the us and Europe, the two sides trade size of more than 1 trillion;Are important driving source of global demand in the us and Europe, the us and Europe's GDP proportion of global GDP has reached more than half,In the situation of trade friction between the us and Europe palliative for the global economic outlook and financial market confidence is undoubtedly a major positive.

The G20 supervision report according to the IMF, for the start of a trade dispute if evolved into a global trade war, global GDP growth over the next two years will fell nearly 1% cumulative (2019 and 2020 fell by 0.45% and 0.45% respectively).Transmission channels have two classes: entity channels and confidence.From the point of physical channels, car tariffs were imposed on the marginal effect and long-term effect were greater than the influence of the current tax of China and the United States.And confidence channels affects the greater than the physical channel.Trade tensions weaken confidence, pushing high risk premium, the influence of the negative effect will be much more than trade war itself.Therefore, the trade friction between the us and Europe, will through the above two channels to reduce the risks of world economic growth and uncertainty.

The second goal could be seen as a long-term goal.This essentially reflects the demand for international trade rules to restore in the us and Europe.Considering the tariffs between the us and Europe in the field of the vast majority of the already very low, based on tariff negotiations related issues at present is mainly in order to reduce the trade policy uncertainty, due to trade friction from the long-term goal, the key point of trade negotiations remains to reshape international trade rules.

The move is essentially is the United States to set high standards of the international trade rules, which in turn stabilize its dominant position in the global economy's strategic intent.But the probability of success and influence will also be restricted by several factors.First, a new framework is shrinkage or expansion?Due to the TTP + TTIP mode, is essentially the parts and beauty + + +, the asia-pacific Europe model, and under the new framework is beauty + +, the European model.Scale is shrinking from the country, the new trade rules constraints, the goal of third countries, lack of bound under the new framework of third countries.Second, America and Japan's "new framework" how to innovate?In terms of the main content of the framework contains high standards too much trade rules framework itself is not new, its content and the TPP, TTIP have a lot of overlap in the field, is expected to have only in part of the content in the field of possible further elaboration.Considering the United States has quit the TPP and TTIP negotiations did not restart, new trade framework with the old trade framework to distinguish the positioning is not clear.Third, the rules of trade negotiations will still be limited by America and Japan concerns Europe with a core product tariff, therefore, in the first goal in the face of uncertainty, will also affect the achievement of the second goal.

For a long time, the author supports China's participation in the high level of trade rules, a higher level of trade rules to a higher level of reform and opening up and strive for high levels of trade rules say, size and dimension is difficult to rule in high level, to participate in high level trade rules with other regional trade, investment, arrange neck simultaneously is a better choice.Now, the reason to still set up, and due to further improve China's per capita income levels, structure transformation for upper end and the value chain of mobile and become stronger.Through the fog,The new trade rules shape and form, is more important than trade friction.

 


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